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5 Fundamental Truths

BY MARK DOUGLASS

1. Anything can happen.

2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.

3. There is a random distribution between winners and losers for any given set of variables that define an edge.

4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.

5. Every moment in the market in unique.

Why You Should Consider Seasonal Trading As Your Trading Method

Finding the right Trading method can be as confusing and conflicting as financial markets themselves. Stock trading, forex trading, futures trading, options trading, and commodities trading to name a few create complexity when trying to determine the best financial instrument to trade. Couple this with determining if you should simply do buy and hold investing, value investing, swing trading, daytrading or some other method some guru developed. It is a certainty that all the choices of finding the right financial instrument to trade and the right market to trade will create confusion at some point; probably at the worst time when your trade has gone under water and you wonder why you ever got into in the first place.

You may be using technical analysis techniques or fundamentals or a combination of both, but Seasonal Trading takes out the subjectivity found in other methods. Seasonal Trading is the only method that provides exact entry and exit points and can be applied to any market using the financial instrument of your choice. You will know the precise day to enter to enter and exit your trades. Seasonal Trading can explode your profits... giving you the trading edge you need.

Adding to the confusion are the financial institutions, pundits, media personalities, and gurus that make trading methods and financial markets a fuzzy picture. The media reports financial markets as an endless sporting event which they use as an advertising vehicle to sell to a prized demographic. Seasonal Trading eliminates much of the fuzz because Seasonal Trading tells you whether a stock will rise, fall or go flat in advance well before you ever commit a single dollar to a trade with an accuracy of 90% or better.

Seasonal Trading Method Explained

Seasonal Trading is a trading method that analyzes past price action with respect to time. If a pattern can be found that holds consistent over several years, this pattern can be projected out to the future to form the basis of a trade. If you have the knowledge that coal stocks rise in November of every year, a long position might be considered for this time period. Conversly if, GRMN goes down in January 9 out of 9 times for the last 9 years It would be wise to consider shorting the stock, buying puts or exiting the position if you happen to already be long. Seasonal Trading Methods give you precise entry and exits, and a probability of success based on past years history. This powerful information can be used in a variety of ways to gain an edge on the market. The biggest edge Seasonal Trading Methods offer is the combination of trading psychology, money management, and trading strategy built in the the trading method itself:

Trading Psychology - Perhaps the most often forgotten component. Most of us aren't mentally wired to be an effective investor or trader. It is learned through self assessment and constant personal introspection. It is often said that a great strategy with poor psychology will lose money, but a mediocre strategy with good trading psychology will make money. Seasonal Trading removes subjectivity in trading which reduces the emotions in a trade. Because the exact trade entry, exit and risk are known before any money is at riks, the trader has much of the psychological burden reduced making them a far better trader or investor. Attempting to analyze every single of piece of data about the equity markets, or determingin if the head and shoulders pattern you used to enter your trade was truly the chart pattern you believed it to be initially. Regardless of the fundamental and technical analysis you may do, the trade has some probability of not working. Seasonal Trading defines that probability in advance.

Money Management - Money Management is the second leg of the stool. You have no chance of having any sort of stability without it. Many view money management as an afterthought that gets too little attention. Seasonal Trading allows you to quantify the risk before a trade is considered. The acknowledgement of risks and appropriate allocations of capital based on the risks will make you a better trader than 90% of traders including professionals.

Seasonal Trading Strategy - The only trading method that places the trader in the best position to deal with the psychology of the markets, money management and the practical requirements of putting on and taking off trades is Seasonal Trading.

Are Technical & Fundametals Analysis Dead?

Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis are by no means dead. Seasonal Trading like any other Trading Method are types of filters. Your method is designed to filter out the trades with the least probability of winning while identifying high probability trades. Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis can be used as additional filters after a trade has shown strong seasonality. Be careful not to overanalyze, but there are times when there may be multiple trades that are available with a 10 year track record of 90% gains in a certain time period. You may use other forms of Technical and Fundamental analysis to pick the highest probability trade. Don't leave common sense out of Seasonal Trading.